Finally, there is a positive movement of the oil prices after the fall during the last month. WTI crude oil futures grew to more than $47 per barrel. The quotes fixed near 61.8-78.6% correction zone. This fact caused the continuation of the bullish sentiment. The report of U.S. Energy Information Administration provided support to oil. It caused a strong decline in the US crude oil reserves. Here are the statistics:
– oil reserves: -7.564 mln barrels;
– oil reserves in Cushing: -1.948 mln barrels;
– strategic oil reserves: 3.15 mln barrels;
– stocks of distillates: +3,131 mln barrels;
– gasoline reserves: -1.647 mln barrels;
– oil production: 9.397 mln barrels per day (+59 thousand barrels per day).
The data from China was positively evaluated by the financial markets participants. Oil imports grew by 13.8%, but an excessive supply on the market still pressures the oil prices. The level of compliance with the OPEC pact about the decreasing of global oil production became 78% in June. It was the lowest level for the half a year. In May, it was at the 95% level.
Technical analysis. Trading recommendations
Support levels: 46.50 USD, 45.00 USD, 44.00 USD, 42.50 USD
Resistance levels: 48.00 USD, 50.00 USD
The black gold price is testing the 46.50 USD mirror support level. The technical analysis tells us about the possibility of the further quotes growth:
– they have consolidated above the 50 MA and the 200 MA;
– MACD has moved to the positive zone;
– several ‘Inside Bars’ Price Action patterns have appeared on the chart.
I advise opening longs after the price fixes above the 46.75 USD local resistance. 47.25 USD may be the goal for taking profit. The oil price can reach 48.00-48.50 USD in the medium term. Look for confirmations and entry points on lower timeframes.
