The June month-over-month import and export container counts are suggesting a growing USA economy, but a slowing global economy – and a worsening trade balance.
Analyst Opinion of Container Movements
January was great. February was bad. March was good. April is ok. May and June were a mixed bag.
Simply looking at this month versus last month – the growth rates improved for both exports and imports. Imports did grow year-over-year but exports contracted.
Looking at the three month rolling averages this month shows slowing growth – with exports showing no YoY growth.
As exports are slowing much faster than imports, the trade balance will worsen.
Using this data to forecast the USA economy, the indications are at this point of a continued weak consumption.
This data set is based on the Ports of LA and Long Beach which account for much (approximately 40%) of the container movement into and out of the United States – and these two ports report their data significantly earlier than other USA ports. Most of the manufactured goods move between countries in sea containers (except larger rolling items such as automobiles). This pulse point is an early indicator of the health of the economy.
Consider that imports final sales are added to GDP usually several months after import – while the import cost itself is subtracted from GDP in the month of import. Export final sales occur around the date of export. Container counts do not include bulk commodities such as oil or autos which are not shipped in containers. For this month:
