There’s no denying that every iPhone release has an impact on AAPL stock, and there are certain patterns the shares follow around the announcement and availability dates. With this year marking the 10-year anniversary of the iPhone, Apple is expected to release three new models, including the special edition iPhone 8. Due to this, AAPL stock will likely behave a bit differently this year, but even so, this pattern will probably still play a role in what the shares do this year.
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Ten years of AAPL stock history
One thing that should be noted when tracking AAPL stock before and after an iPhone announcement is that the company gradually shifted the launch dates over the early years. After revealing the original iPhone in January 2007, it unveiled the iPhone 3G in June 2008. The iPhone reveals remained in June until the iPhone 4s, which was announced in October 2011. With the iPhone 5, the announcements shifted to September, where they have since remained. This year it’s probably still too early to say, but most generally expect the iPhone 7s and 7s Plus and the iPhone 8 to be revealed in September.
The first iPhone was revealed to the world in January 2007 after long-running rumors, and it was released on June 29, 2007. Since then, AAPL stock is up some 600% on a split-adjusted basis, and its chart shows a steady upward march with a couple deep valleys when zoomed out to 10 years of history.
The two main valleys that you see were in 2013 and 2016, as AAPL stock started dropping off in late 2012 after the release of the iPhone 5 and then in August 2015 ahead of the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus. However, 2016 was really more of a lackluster year ahead of huge gains this year in anticipation of the tenth anniversary iPhone 8.
What happens to AAPL stock leading up to a new iPhone?
In the days leading up to the original iPhone release, AAPL stock was on a steady decline during the tail end of the holiday shopping period. Things were more even the following year with the iPhone 3G reveal in June 2008, but with the iPhone 3GS the next year, AAPL stock ticked higher about 10 days before the announcement.
