U.S. stock-index futures are fractionally in the green as European shares rise, Asia is mixed and oil drops modestly. Global risk staged a rebound and markets unwound some of yesterday’s safe-haven moves as U.S. government shutdown fears receded and concerns about the Trump administration’s ability to enact its fiscal agenda were put on the back-burner in European trading. Bored investors are marking time as they wait to see whether the gathering of policy makers in Wyoming will offer any hints on the process of unwinding stimulus.
The MSCI World index, which fell to a five-week low on Monday, was flat on Thuesday while gains by cyclical stocks helped Europe’s STOXX 600 index inch up 0.5%, even as shares of UK’s Dixons Carphone plummeted up to 29% after the mobile phone retailer downgraded expectations for full-year profit, reflecting tougher conditions in the mobile market as customers hold on to handsets for longer. It was the worst-performing among European retail stocks so far this year, even before today’s decline wiped a third off its market value. British sub-prime lender Provident Financial recovered slightly from its sharp falls earlier in the week, up 2.7 percent.
MSCI’s index of Asia-Pacific shares ex-Japan gained, shaking off jitters that gripped markets after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to shut down the U.S. government and end the North American Free Trade Agreement. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.4%, dragged down a stronger yen and by steel makers, after reports that the country’s biggest producer was cutting prices. Japan’s Topix index fell 0.5 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index increased 0.4 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.1 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.4 percent as the market reopened after being shut on Wednesday. The Japanese yen fell 0.3 percent to 109.35 per dollar.
The dollar strengthened against major G-10 peers in another quiet overnight session; the Korea won strengthens for a fourth day as North Korea tensions appear to be blowing off. Treasury futures are modestly lower while the 10-year JGB yield fell to 0.025%, the lowest since May, following a strong auction. The Hang Seng reopened with gains after Wednesday’s typhoon-induced break, sending H-shares approach 2017 highs. Over in China, the offshore yuan climbed to its highest level since September as the PBOC strengthened the Yuan fixing and skipped open market operations, draining a net 100 billion yuan from the market. WTI crude little changed; Dalian iron ore 2.5% higher.
Oil is modestly lower despite traders starting to watch tropical depression Harvey, which could strengthen into the first hurricane to strike Texas since 2008, forcing workers to be evacuated from Gulf of Mexico platforms, and sending cotton rallying as airlines prepare for flight disruptions. On Wednesday, the EIA reported that U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles fell while production rose.
On Tuesday, Trump said he would be willing to risk a government shutdown to secure funding for a wall along the Mexico border. Those comments came before a late-September deadline to raise the U.S. debt ceiling or risk defaulting on debt payments. As a result, Fitch said failure to raise the debt ceiling soon would lead it to review the United States’ sovereign rating with “potentially negative implications.”
Markets will be focusing on the central banking symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which kicks off today and where Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi are both due to speak on Friday, although new policy messages were considered unlikely. Still, “there are concerns about what central bankers will say as the market appears stretched, especially Wall Street, where valuations look to have reached a limit,” said Enrico Vaccari, a fund manager at Italy’s Consultinvest. Vaccari said he saw risks of a stock market correction after Jackson Hole that was unlikely to leave Europe stocks unscathed, even though valuations in the regions had become attractive again compared with their U.S. peers. “Europe can’t make it on its own, especially because of the super-euro,” he said.
As Bloomberg notes this morning, “expectations for meaningful comments from the key speakers at Jackson Hole – Federal Reserve Chair Yellen and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi – seem fairly low, but amid lackluster August trading the event is significant enough to capture the focus of most investors. If nothing else, it’s a welcome distraction from U.S. politics. All major U.S. equity benchmarks fell on Wednesday after President Donald Trump’s threat to shut down the government.”
“Major central banks, including the Fed, are in transition from providing ever more accommodation to gradually removing accommodation,” said Kevin Harris, analyst at Roubini Global Economics. “Recent Fed commentary contains hints of running a risk of pushing growth just a bit to see if more gains are available. Jackson Hole may offer further clues about this prospect.”
