Written by John Lounsbury and Steven Hansen
The headlines say new home sales crashed and well below market expectations. Our analysis continues to show a continuing deceleration of new home sales.
Analyst Opinion of New Home Sales
This month the backward revisions were moderately up, but the rolling averages significantly declined. Because of weather and other factors, the rolling averages are the way to view this series – and the rolling averages are at the lower levels seen since the beginning of 2016.
The median sales prices were moderately down whilst the average price was moderately up.
This data series is suffering from methodology issues which manifest as significant backward revision – and this month the revisions were up. Home sales move in spurts and jumps – so this is why we view this series using a three month rolling average.
Econintersect analysis:
US Census Headlines:
The quantity of new single family homes for sale remains well below historical levels.
Seasonally Adjusted New Homes for Sale
The headlines of the data release:
Sales of new single-family houses in July 2017 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 571,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 9.4 percent (±12.9 percent)* below the revised June rate of 630,000 and is 8.9 percent (±15.4 percent)* below the July 2016 estimate of 627,000.
