We are slowly entering a time of increased seasonal volatility and the turn into September next week is sure to add a spark like we haven’t seen in sometime. On Sunday’s open, the market will begin to price in fully any ramifications from Jackson Hole. The initial take away of focus was that Janet Yellen might have effectively turned in her 2-week notice as she favored holding off on deregulation in her speech. Such a view doesn’t seem to be that of a ‘team player’ to the Trump administration when she is up for reappointment in February of next year.

In addition to pricing in Jackson Hole ramifications, the damage, or hopeful lack thereof from Hurricane Harvey will likely provide a good deal of volatility for Crude Oil and Gasoline. The irony that many traders are grasping is that the Hurricane is a threat to demand of Crude Oil, which has come from refiners that are situated along the gulf coast, and not the production or supply of Oil, which is safely tucked away in West Texas. The supply from Eagle Ford Shale in south central Texas is not expected to be affected due to the relatively weak strength of the Hurricane once on land. The takeaway is that any disruption to refiners could weaken demand while supply stays high and could put further pressures on the price of Crude Oil.

In addition to Jackson Hole, next week will kick off with Brexit talks on Monday, which so far has led to persistent GBP weakness. This week, GBP saw its lowest close to the EUR since 2009, and further weakness could persist if negotiations weaken further. On Thursday, markets will close the month of August with a final taste of US inflation via the Personal Consumption Expenditure number, which is the Fed’s preferred method of inflation data followed by Friday’s ever-important US nonfarm payroll data. The US Data has been weak and consistently disappointment. Therefore, next week’s data will be looked as a validation of the bears or a possible short-covering parade if US economic data surprises to the upside.