Last week the stock indexes were stuck in a tight range, as the TLT and GLD rallied while the dollar fell (UUP).
Despite the apparent building fear in the markets, the VXX just consolidated.
Today, last week came undone. TLT, VXX, and GLD all had big declines and the SPY broke out to new highs with its biggest one day percent gain since April.
Interestingly, some of the big movers were IYR (Real Estate), and XLU (Utilities). These moves seem counter intuitive to the recent correlation with TLT which was down big today. Plus, these aren’t areas that would give the bulls confidence for a continuation of the SPY’s breakout.
However, both IYR and XLU broke out above key levels, so they are worth watching for trades on pullbacks.
Another concern is that IWM didn’t trade over last week’s highs, and the QQQ, was up nicely but didn’t break its all-time highs.
Fortunately there was some movement in sectors that are more indicative of a continuing bull move.
IYT (Transports) broke out of tight consolidation and convincingly into bullish phase territory. This is a big change from a few weeks ago when it looked like it was going to breakdown under its 200-DMA.
Additionally, the SMH rallied nicely and KRE bounced back above its breakdown level. If KRE can put in a reversal pattern like we’ve seen in XRT and even better IYT, then the bulls will have a lot of fuel for the SPYs to move much high.
There’s hope for today’s breakout, but there’s also a lot support needed to make it really work. Keep your eyes on the Modern Family.
S&P 500 (SPY) Big breakout to new highs. Look for intra-day support at 248.80, 248.40, and then big level to hold now is 248. Look for support at 247.50. Resistance at 250.
Russell 2000 (IWM) Didn’t breakout. Needs to clear 241. Support at 140 then 138.45 is important support to hold and then 137.25 and 136.25. Resistance at now at 141 and then 142.30.
