EUR/USD was not convinced by Draghi’s complaints about the exchange rate and reached new highs. Can it continue even higher? A mix of inflation, industrial output, and trade balance numbers awaits us. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.
The ECB did not reach a decision about tapering QE, but had a preliminary discussion and will probably make an announcement in October. ECB president Mario Draghi mentioned the exchange rate many times in his press conference. He blamed the strong euro for lower growth and inflation prospects, downside risks and everything that could go wrong. Markets were not convinced by this, and the euro advanced. EUR/USD also advanced on the weakness of the US dollar. Worries about the hurricanes, the retirement of Vice Chair Fischer and lower US bond yields all contributed.
Updates:
EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
German inflation data: Wednesday, 6:00. The initial read of German inflation came out stronger than expected and pushed the all-European figures higher. This will likely be confirmed in the final read for August. The wholesale price index (WPI) is expected to rise by 0.1% after sliding by the same scale last time.
Employment Change: Wednesday, 9:00. We get a monthly measure of the unemployment rate from the euro-zone, but this quarterly indicator of the overall growth of employment provides a broader view. In Q1 2017, employment rose by 0.4%, better than expected and on top of an upwards revision for Q1 2016, that also saw 0.4% growth. A more modest growth rate of 0.3% is projected now.
Industrial Production: Wednesday, 9:00. Despite its late publication, after the major countries had already published their own figures, the publication is of interest. A drop of 0.6% was seen in June. We now get the data for July, that could see a bounce back. However, expectations stand at 0%.
French Final CPI: Thursday, 6:45. Also France, like Germany, has seen a robust rise in its consumer price index in August in the first estimate. A confirmation is on the cards now.
German WPI: Friday, 6:00. Germany’s Wholesale Price Index serves as a gauge of inflation in the pipeline. A drop of 0.1% was recorded in July. We now get the figures for August and a rise is likely.
Jens Weidmann speaks: Thursday, 15:30. The president of the German central bank, the Bundesbank, speaks in Frankfurst about monetary policy. Will he provide a direction about the next moves of the ECB?
Trade Balance: Friday, 9:00. The euro-zone enjoys a significant trade balance surplus, driven largely by Germany’s exports. In June, the euro zone had a better than expected surplus of 22.3 billion. A marginally narrower surplus is predicted now: 22.1 billion.
