The difference between success and failure in Forex trading is very likely to depend upon which currency pairs you choose to trade each week, and not on the exact trading methods you might use to determine trade entries and exits. Each week I am going to analyze fundamentals, sentiment and technical positions in order to determine which currency pairs are most likely to produce the easiest and most profitable trading opportunities over the next week. In some cases it will be trading the trend. In other cases it will be trading support and resistance levels during more ranging markets.

Big Picture September 10

Last week, I saw the best possible trade for the coming week as long of Gold, and short of the U.S. Dollar. The result was nicely positive: GOLD/USD rose by 1.02%.

This past week has been dominated by two major factors: continuing tension over Korea, and a historically very powerful hurricane, Hurricane Irma, which has caused massive destruction in the Caribbean region and is currently heading towards Florida. It is feared that even if loss of life is minimal thanks to safety precautions, evacuation and sheltering, the economic damage of such a powerful hurricane passing right over all of Florida could be vast, and it seems to be this fear which has helped damage the U.S. Dollar over recent days. At the time of writing, there are signs that the impact may not be as bad as the worst-case scenario, with the hurricane’s intensity seeming to drop somewhat, and its track veering westwards, suggesting that the eastern part of the state, including Miami, may be spared from the brunt. If the damage is much less than expected, the U.S. Dollar may enjoy a relief rally, at least for a day or two.

The news agenda this week will probably be dominated by the impact of Hurricane Irma upon the continental United States, and some key U.S. economic data due at the end of the week.

Following the current picture, I see the highest probability trade this week as long of Gold, Euro, the British Pound, and the Japanese Yen, and short of the U.S. Dollar. All these assets are in long-term bullish trends against the U.S. Dollar.