The central bank monetary policy decisions continue into another week. However, this time around it is quite likely that there will not be any surprises. On the agenda this week, the Swiss National Bank will be meeting for its quarterly monetary policy review. This is later followed by the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision on Thursday.
Both the central banks are expected to hold interest rates steady and likely to stick to the old narrative. Compared to the BoC and the ECB meetings last week, the SNB and the BoE meetings are likely to be a non-event.
On the economic front, the focus turns to inflation and retail sales reports from the United States. Headline inflation is expected to accelerate in August which could offer some relief for the US dollar which continues to slip against its peers.
Overall, the week ahead is likely to be quiet. Here is a brief recap on what to expect from the currency markets in the week ahead.
UK: Inflation, Wages to decide the BoE’s forward guidance
While the economic calendar is light across most of the G7 currencies, it is going to be a big week for the British pound. Starting the week on Tuesday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) will be releasing the monthly inflation figures.
According to the economists polled, it is estimated that UK’s consumer prices might have accelerated 2.8% in August. Just a month before, consumer prices remained stable at 2.6%. Even if inflation accelerates to 2.8%, it is still lower than the 2.9% inflation rate that was seen in May this year. Core inflation rate is also expected to pick up, rising 2.5%.
On Wednesday, the monthly jobs data will be coming out with investors focusing on wage growth. The UK’s unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in July and marked the lowest levels since 1975. Wage growth for August is expected to rise 2.3%, accelerating from 2.1% in the three months to July on the year.
Following these two key data points, on Thursday the Bank of England will be holding its monetary policy meeting. No changes are expected to the interest rates, and officials are likely to issue forward guidance taking into consideration the latest inflation and wage growth data points.
