BRIC economies continue to grow. In the late 2020s, the size of China’s economy will surpass that of the US. By the early 2030s, the BRICs’ combined economic power will surpass that of major advanced nations.
The BRICS Summit in Xiamen, Fujian province, signals the rising might of the large emerging economies, such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil. South Africa does not fulfill the criteria of a true BRIC economy – large population, strong growth record and catch-up potential – but it has historically played a key role in African governance.
As global economic prospects now look brighter in the major advanced economies, some observers believe their recovery will weaken the role of the BRICS in global economy and governance. But the realities are quite different.
China the largest economy by the late 2020s
The four key BRIC economies are often compared with major advanced economies, or the so-called G6: the United States, Japan and the four core European nations: Germany, UK, France and Italy.
In 2000, China’s economy was barely a tenth of that of the US, whereas Japan’s GDP was still as large as the three largest European economies together: Germany, the UK and France. Brazil was struggling for stability, Russian economy had been crushed by US-led “reforms,” while change was only beginning in India.
By the early 2010s, the world economy looked very different. The US economy was still more than twice as big as that of China but Japan’s growth had been penalized by stagnation. Chancellor Merkel’s Germany and President Sarkozy’s France ruled over Europe. In Brazil, the Lula era brought about a dramatic catch-up. In India, growth had accelerated. In Russia, President Putin’s rule had multiplied the size of the economy by almost six-fold.
If China can stay on course, the size of its economy shall surpass that of the US by the late 2020s. Despite growth deceleration, which is normal after intensive industrialization, China has strong growth potential until the 2030s, whereas US growth is slowing by maturing economy and aging demographics.
