You’d be forgiven for thinking that the chances of another Fed hike this year are about as good as the chances of Donald Trump deleting his Twitter account.
After all, the incoming data between now and December is going to be rendered at best noisy and at worst meaningless by Harvey and Irma (the hurricanes, not the Florida couple who quit their jobs stocking shelves at Wal-Mart to day trade VIX ETPs).
On top of that, the timing in December will coincide with more political wrangling and an environment characterized by extreme fiscal uncertainty isn’t exactly conducive to a rate hike that isn’t fully priced by markets. Oh, and if they do start normalizing the balance sheet, and it roils markets, that could change their calculus on rates.
The uncertainty surrounding the future leadership of the Fed complicates things further – at least in investors’ minds.
As Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise notes, this is “a particularly acute issue for currency and bond traders,” but given the fact that the fate of the risk rally depends in no small part on whether policymakers exhibit an “appropriate” level of dovishness as they attempt to normalize, one could well argue that it’s even more “acute” for equity investors, especially considering the fact that the retail variety isn’t usually very informed and is thus subject to being unhedged and blindsided.
With that as the setup, read Crise’s latest below on the importance of separating what you think policymakers should do from policymakers actually will do…
Via Bloomberg
