The spread between 10Y Treasury yields and the ratio of copper-to-gold has never been wider as the former signals recessionary economics (flattest curve since 2007) and the latter reflationary recovery (highest in 3 years)… so who is right?
Bond yields are sliding as Gundlach’s favorite signal (copper/gold) soars… implying 10Y over 3.01% (75bps higher than the current level!)
In fact, the gold-to-copper ratio is on the cusp of dipping beneath four for the first time since November 2014.
As Bloomberg comments, that’s a good sign for the global economy. Rising prices of copper indicate a pick-up in industrial production while falling or stable gold prices show that investors are less concerned about hedging against economic uncertainty.
But the US economic ‘hard’ data – not the ‘soft’ survey data – seems to be siding with the yield curve, not Dr.Copper…
The question is – does the lagged impact of China’s Credit Impulse start to kick in right on time (and crush the dreams of the world’s copper traders)…
Which also makes us wonder – why is China’s freight index plunging to one years lows as the Baltic Dry soars?
