Iraq is moving troops around the Kurdish region of Iraq, putting at risk about 600,000 barrels of daily oil production at a time when global oil supply is tightening. Oil is also getting support from the Trump Administration’s decision to decertify the Iranian nuclear deal and kicking the can to the U.S. Congress that will have to either change the deal or the U.S. may pull out. Yet, because all the major commodities that show growth like copper and palladium are on the move the real reason behind the oil rally may be simply a case of rip-roaring demand at a time when global oil production is falling.
You must feel sorry for the Kurds, the people without a country. The vote for independence did not go over well with Iraq or Turkey.Iraq launched a military operation to take over the region from Kurdish forces and captured several positions south of Kirkuk from Kurdish fighters on Monday in their bid to regain control of the city.Reports are that Kurdish leaders agreed to hand over control of North Oil and North Gas company facilities who belong to the state and that the oil and gas facilities should stay out of the conflict. Still, the oil market will be worried that the supply from the area could be at risk.
The U.S. oil and gas rig count are showing more signs of topping out. Baker Hughes’ reported that the oil rig count fell by five in last week to 743. Rigs drilling for natural gas also fell by 2 to 15. Offshore oil rigs fell by 2 which put oil rigs 3 below year-ago levels. There will be more pullback in oil rigs as cost per rig is rising and a tight supply of rig and frac crews. Hot money is pulling back from shale as returns have been disappointing.
Forget about Peak demand.OPEC Secretary General Mohammad Barkindo say that oil demand will grow at a “healthy pace” over the next five years. He says that crude oil demand will increase an average 1.2 million barrels a day through 2022 and slow to 300,000 barrels a day in 2035 to 2040 in a giving a preview of OPEC’s 2017 World Oil Outlook set to be released Nov. 7 according to Bloomberg.
