Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
`
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of October 30
October 30
Personal Income – September
0.4%
0.2
0.4
Personal Spending
0.9
0.1
0.9
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
21.3
21.3
21.3
October 31
Employment Cost Index – Q3
0.6%
0.5
0.7
Employment Cost Index – Y/Y
2.4
2.4
S&P Case/Shiller Index – August
Twenty City M/M
0.6%
0.7
0.6
Twenty City M/M – SA
0.2
0.3
0.5
Twenty City Y/Y
6.0
5.8
6.0
Chicago PMI
62.0
65.2
62.0
Consumer Confidence
120.5
119.8
121.0
November 1
Auto Sales* – September
17.47K
18.57
17.50
Car Sales
6.31
6.81
Truck Sales
11.16
11.76
*SAAR, as published by Motor Intelligence
PMI Manufacturing Index – October
54.5
54.5
54.5
ISM (Mfg) – October
59.0
60.8
59.5
ISM Prices
Construction Spending – September
0.3%
0.5
0.1
FMOC
1.125%
1.125
1.125
November 2
Initial Unemployment Claims
235K
233K
235
Productivity – Q3 (p)
2.4%
1.5
2.4
Unit Labor Costs
0.6
0.2
0.6
November 3
Nonfarm Payrolls – October
350K
-33
323
Private
340
-40
320
Manufacturing
20
-1
19
Unemployment
4.4%
4.2
4.3
Average Workweek
34.4HR
34.4
34.4
Average Hourly Earnings
0.2%
0.5
0.2
International Trade – September
-$43.6
-42.4
-43.2
PMI Services Index
55.9
55.9
55.9
ISM Services – October
59.3
59.8
58.7
ISM Prices
ISM Business Activity
Factory Orders – September
1.2%
1.2
1.2
Durable Goods Orders
2.2
2.0
Nondurable Goods Orders
0.3
0.4
Week of November 6
November 7
Consumer Credit – September
$16.5B
13.1
16.5
November 9
Wholesale Inventories – September
0.3%
0.3
November 10
Treasury Budget – October
-$48B
8.0
