EM FX ended the week under pressure, as US data points to a rate hike in December and perhaps more in 2018. FOMC minutes this Wednesday will be closely studied for clues. US retail sales and CPI data Friday will also be important. We believe the most vulnerable currencies in this environment are ZAR and TRY, but one could also add MXN and perhaps RUB to that mix too.

China reports September foreign reserves Monday, which are expected to tick up to $3.1 trillion. Money and new loan data could come out this week, but no date has been set. Trade data will be reported Friday. Exports are expected to rise 9.8% y/y and imports by 15.2% y/y.

Turkey reports August IP Monday, which is expected to rise 5.1% y/y vs. 14.5% in July. Turkey then reports current account data Wednesday, where a -$1.35 billion deficit is expected. If so, the 12-month total will remain steady at -$37.1 billion. Overall, the external balances are still deteriorating.  

Czech Republic reports August industrial and construction output and September CPI Monday. IP is seen rising 4.2% y/y vs. 3.3% in July, while CPI is seen rising 2.7% y/y vs. 2.5% in August. Rising inflation and a fairly stable exchange rate should lead the central bank to hike rates at the next meeting November 2.

Hungary reports August trade Monday, where a EUR480 million surplus is expected. It then reports September CPI Tuesday, which is expected to rise 2.7% y/y vs. 2.6% in August. If so, it would still be within the 2-4% target range. The central bank just eased at the September meeting, and so no changes are expected at the next policy meeting October 24.

Mexico reports September CPI Monday, which is expected to rise 6.46% y/y vs. 6.66% in August. If so, this would be the first deceleration since June 2016. Still, inflation would still be well above the 2-4% target range and so Banxico is likely to keep rates steady until it comes down further. Mexico then reports August IP Thursday, which is expected to contract -0.5% y/y vs. -1.6% in July.