As widely expected, Japan Prime Minister Abe’s ruling coalition is set for a sweeping victory in Sunday’s general election, and may retain the two-thirds parliamentary majority needed to revise Japan’s constitution, according to an NHK exit poll.
Shinzo Abe during an election campaign rally in Tokyo, on Oct. 21
Shortly after polls closed at 8pm, an NHK exit poll showed that Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito are set to win between 281 and 336 seats of the 465 total, boosting Abe’s chances of becoming Japan’s longest serving political leader: the Prime Minister needs 233 for a simple majority and 310 for a supermajority. Opposition parties are set to split the rest, with the left-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party projected to come in second. Actual results are now being counted.
NHK also projected the left wing Constitutional Democratic party winning 44 to 67 seats, with upstart Tokyo governor Yuriko Koike’s Party of Hope taking 38 to 59 seats.
The exit polls are in line with the most recent media seat projections, shown below:
Source: Nikkei, Mainichi, Asahi, Kyodo, Goldman Sachs
The vote took place as a typhoon lashed Japan on Sunday, threatening to damp voter turnout for the election that was widely forecast to give Abe a fresh mandate to pursue economic revival and bolster the nation’s military.Super Typhoon Lan is one of the strongest to hit Japan in years with heavy rain expected across much of the country. The Japan Meteorological Agency issued severe weather warnings for floods, wind damage and landslides. The typhoon is projected to make landfall near Tokyo on Sunday night.
A substantial win for Abe’s coalition would pave the way for more ultra-easy monetary policy and flexible fiscal stimulus that has allowed Japan – Asia’s second-biggest economy – to grow for 6 straight quarters, if only on paper. It would also give President Trump a stable partner in pushing a hardline stance against Kim Jong Un’s regime in North Korea. The LDP is due to hold a leadership election next September. If Abe runs and wins again, he could stay on as prime minister until 2021, according to Bloomberg.
