Retail sales were up according to US Census headline data – but slightly below expectations. The unadjusted rolling average improved.
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Analyst Opinion of Retail Sales
Things to consider when viewing this data:
it is not inflation adjusted – and inflation in this sector is now running near 1.5 %.
the three month rolling averages of the unadjusted data improved
our analysis says this month was better than last month.
wonder water percentage of the gains were hurricane related.
The relationship between year-over-year growth in inflation adjusted retail sales and retail employment are now correlating.
Backward data revisions were upward.
Econintersect Analysis:
unadjusted sales rate of growth accelerated 0.2 % month-over-month, and up4.1 % year-over-year.
unadjusted sales 3 month rolling year-over-year average growth accelerated 0.1 % month-over-month, up 3.6 % year-over-year.
unadjusted sales (but inflation adjusted) up 2.8 % year-over-year
this is an advance report. Please see caveats below showing variations between the advance report and the “final”.
in the seasonally adjusted data – the major weakness was electronics, appliance, department stores and personal care stores. There was significant strength in motor vehicles, gasoline, and food services.
U.S. Census Headlines:
seasonally adjusted sales up 1.6 % month-over-month, up 4.4 % year-over-year.
the market was expecting (from Bloomberg / Econoday):
| seasonally adjusted |
Consensus Range |
Consensus |
Actual |
| Retail Sales – M/M change |
0.7 % to 2.6 % |
+1.9 % |
+1.6 % |
| Retail Sales less autos – M/M change |
0.1 % to 1.9 % |
+0.8 % |
+1.0 % |
| Less Autos & Gas – M/M Change |
0.2 % to 0.6 % |
+0.4 % |
+0.5 % |
| Control Group – M/M change |
0.2 % to 0.4 % |
+0.2 % |
+0.4 % |
Year-over-Year Change – Unadjusted Retail Sales (blue line) and Inflation Adjusted Retail Sales (red line)
