USD/CHF Daily Chart
Technical Outlook: Earlier this month we highlighted that USD/CHF was heading into a key resistance confluence at 9833 just ahead of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report. The advance reversed sharply after registering a high at 9836 with the pullback rebounding off the 50-line of the ascending pitchfork formation we’ve been tracking off the yearly lows.
The advance is once again approaching critical confluence resistance with the immediate advance at risk while below 9808/21– a level defined by the March swing low, the 200-day moving average and basic slope resistance extending off the yearly high. Interim support rests back at the 50-line (currently ~9730s) with a break below the monthly open / opening-range low at 9680 needed to suggest a more significant high is in place.
USD/CHF 240min Chart
Notes: A closer look at price action further highlights this near-term resistance confluence region. Interim support targets at 9773 backed by the weekly opening-range lows at 9730– look for a reaction there with a break lower risking a drop into 9678/80 & the lower parallel / 9629. A breach / daily close above this resistance zone invalidates the reversal play with such a scenario targeting initial topside objectives at the median-line (~9860s) backed by the 50% retracement of the December decline at 9882.
Bottom line: USDCHF is at a big resistance level and while the medium-term focus remains weighted to the topside, the immediate advance vulnerable while below this threshold. From a trading standpoint, I’m looking for near-term exhaustion up here – but stay nimble – the technical significance at this level suggests that IF the topside gives out, prices could see 9880 in a hurry.
