Yesterday’s missive took a glass-is-half-full stance by exploring the various tailwinds the bulls are counting on to keep stock prices movin’ on up. The list included earnings, economic growth, low inflation, ongoing QE, favorable seasonality, the flows into passive funds/ETFs, performance anxiety, performance chasing, the preponderance of dip-buying, and, of course, the tax trade. Good stuff.
However, since one of the key attributes of a good analyst is objectivity, I thought it might be a good idea to wander across the field this morning and talk to the players on the opposing sideline. The goal here is to try and understand each team’s key points so that we can make an informed decision on which argument is stronger.
So here goes… A rundown of the major issues that our furry friends in the bear camp are focused on from a near-term perspective.
What Everybody Knows… As the saying goes, something that everybody on Wall Street already knows isn’t worth knowing. The key here is that by the time everybody can (a) understand and then (b) quickly/easily espouse the reasons that something is supposed to happen in the market, the event is likely priced in. As such, the bears argue that the laundry list of positives are well known by now and thus, are likely priced into the market at this stage.
Earnings: I know what you’re thinking; how can both teams count an issue as theirs? In short, it depends on your point of view. While the bulls argue that earnings are growing at a strong clip, the bears suggest that the current trend of great quarters isn’t going to last much longer. Exhibit A here is although EPS for the S&P 500 enjoyed double-digit growth in the first two quarters of the year, the pace of growth is about to slow dramatically. According to FactSet’s approach (which combines actual results from companies that have reported with estimates for those yet to report results) EPS growth is expected to come in at 2.4% compared to the year-ago quarter. Now factor in (a) tougher comps going forward (especially at the beginning of next year) (b) some high profile misses from the likes of General Electric (NYSE: GE) and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC), and (c) the hit that insurers and reinsurers are likely to take in response to this year’s hurricane season. From the bears’ perspective, what you are left with is less than stellar fundamental support for stock prices.