What will the gold price do in 2018? That’s the question top of mind of investors after both bulls and bears got confused this year: gold moved from a breakout to a breakdown situation. Gold made investors bullish this year only to result in strong bearish price action subsequently. Given the recent neutral trend in gold what is InvestingHaven’s gold price forecast for 2018?

Note that our gold price forecast for 2018 is one of the many articles that appear in our series of market forecasts for 2018 written by InvestingHaven’s inhouse research team.

We see three potential scenarios related to the price of gold playing out in 2018, which we discuss in this article. We highlight which scenario we believe is likely to play out, and which price levels to watch to validate either of the scenarios.

Before deep-diving into our scenarios we feel we need to warn readers not to get overly excited when reading all those bullish 2018 gold price forecasts by perma gold bulls on gold blogs, like here and here. Interestingly, none of them feature any gold chart. How can anyone simply rely on “reasons to be bullish on gold” without checking a couple of charts on different time frames is beyond us.

A gold price forecast for 2018: bearish scenario

According to the historical gold chart we see that gold’s price continues its downtrend in 2018 within its secular channel. It really reminds us of the situation at the end of the 90ies. That is when gold concluded its two-decade long downtrend. However, such a trend change from one secular trend into another one is a process, and it can last a couple of years.

We feel that the same is happening right now. The trend change from gold’s 10 year uptrend into a downtrend took 1.5 year (end of 2011 till early 201). Subsequently, we would not be surprised to see a trend change from bearish to bullish, and only that change is starting in 2018. In such a scenario gold will still remain in a downtrend in 2018.