To coin a phrase, “It isn’t over until the fat lady sings” and that sentiment certainly applies to Brexit. Lord Kerr, the architect of Article 50 to the Treaty of Lisbon, has again reiterated that the process can be stopped until the UK actually leaves the EU. Just yesterday, former Prime Minister Gordon Brown stated that the public will for Brexit may founder by the summer once it becomes clear that the promises made by the Leave side will not be delivered upon. There has already been a shift in public opinion as to whether leaving was the right decision, but the margin remains tight.
If nature abhors a vacuum, then business abhors uncertainty. During her Florence speech, Mrs May appeared to accept that UK business needed to avoid a “cliff edge” scenario when it leaves the bloc and therefore asked for a two-year transitional period to come into force once Article 50 notice has expired. However, such is the weakness of the PM’s position that this clear call has been obfuscated by rhetoric claiming that a “deal” must be in place before the UK leaves such that business has something to transition to.
Whilst the Leave side’s assertion that the EU needs a trade deal more than the UK does has shown to be yet another lie, it is plainly in the interest of European and UK businesses that Brexit causes the least disruption possible.
Business leaders on both sides of the channel are urging both sides to a breakthrough (and to coin another phrase, the ball is in Mrs May’s court) such that a transitional deal can be salvaged from the talks in the very near future. The CBI and its sister EU organisations are due to meet the PM next week to warn that further delay will mean that businesses must plan on a worst-case basis. These concerns were echoed by BusinessEurope, an employers’ alliance. One of their members stated bluntly: “If we don’t get a transition deal agreed fairly soon, it’s not going to be very useful.”
