Being the first data following The National Congress, we are expecting little in the way of disappointment from China’s macro data. However, the slowdown in credit supply has been well telegraphed, and sure enough the data was not pretty with FAI growth at its weakest in 17 years, Retail Sales and Industrial Production both disappoint.
Early indicators for October industrial output aren’t positive – the official PMI and export growth both edged down and came in below expectations, writes Bloomberg Economics economist Qian Wan:
“Environmental factors could also be at work – as winter is coming, factories in North China are facing more curbs to improve air quality.”
And tonight’s data confirmed that weakness:
Retail Sales YoY MISS +10.0% (+10.5% exp) against +10.3% in September – weakest since Feb 2006
Fixed Assets Investment YoY MEET +7.3% (+7.3% exp) against +7.5% in September – lowest since Feb 2000
Industrial Production YoY MISS +6.2% (+6.3% exp) against +6.6% in September
Not pretty:
Some standaouts:
In FAI, railway transportation investment fell by 58.6 percent.
Looking through the retail sales, cosmetics are doing well, as is food and furniture. Jewelry softened as did construction materials.
We are seeing a pretty pronounced slowdown in the property market, which indicates that industrial output may continue to step down in coming months.
See the difference here:
The lagged impact of China’s credit impulse decline is starting to weigh on China macro data…
Chinese stocks are extending losses…
As Bloomberg notes, all eyes will be on China’s bond market as this data lands today as yields spike to 3 year highs
Debt is proving itself increasingly sensitive to signs of bullishness in Chinese economic data, with the positive vibe melding with angst about the deleveraging campaign (which is starting to bite) to be a recipe for yield gains. Unsteadiness in the U.S. and U.K. bond markets doesn’t help either.
