Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of November 13
November 13
Treasury Budget – October
-$60.0B
8.0
-58.1
November 14
Producer Price Index – October
0.1%
0.4
0.1
PPI less food, energy and trade services
0.2
0.2
November 15
Consumer Price Index – October
0.2%
0.5
0.1
Core CPI
0.2
0.1
0.2
Retail Sales – October
0.1%
1.6
0.1
Retail Sales, ex Autos
0.4
1.0
0.2
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas
0.5
0.5
Retail Sales, Autos
NY Fed Manufacturing Index
26.0
30.2
26.3
Business Inventories – August
0.1%
0.7
0.2
November 16
Initial Unemployment Claims
233K
239
234
Philadelphia Fed Survey
23.0
27.9
24.0
Export Prices – October
0.5%
0.8
0.5
Import Prices
0.6
0.7
0.6
Industrial Production – October
0.5%
0.3
0.5
Capacity Utilization
76.4
76.0
76.3
Manufacturing
0.2
0.1
0.2
NAHB Index
69
68
68
November 17
Housing Starts – October
1.170M
1.127M
1.180
Building Permits
1.240
1.215
1.24
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
23
23
Week of November 20
November 20
Leading Indicators
0.3%
-0.1
0.3
November 21
Chicago Fed National Activity Index – October
0.20
0.17
Existing Home Sales – October
5.410M
5.390
5.400
November 22
Durable Goods Sales – October
0.7%
2.0
0.8
Initial Unemployment Claims
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Nov (r)
97.8
97.8
November 23
Thanksgivng
