The American view of the “rising dollar” period is one of truly understated appreciation. I wouldn’t be surprised if many of us didn’t realize there was ever a downturn to begin with, let alone one that flirted with proportions reaching recession. After all, the most widely felt effects didn’t manifest and really sting until the labor market slowdown dragged into this year.
We here in the United States were lucky, or at least avoiding the fate of being in the direct line of fire. It wasn’t the same overseas, and perhaps there is a great deal about the 2014-16 period that is even more unappreciated from our perspective. It was always that way from the very beginning, with late 2014 (apart from October 15) populated by overseas irregularities more than domestic. As I wrote in June 2015 about what had already transpired to that point (with a lot more to come, obviously):
To a great extent, Americans are both sheltered and wholly unaware, but the rest of the world is very much alerted to the continued downside of the eurodollar standard. Stocks may be at or near record highs (though broader stock indices, such as the NYSE composite, have gone nowhere since the “dollar” started to rise), but Brazil is in a state of total economic and financial chaos while China flirts with what was never thought possible (growth at Great Recession levels, a massive housing imbalance and now a stock bubble that in some ways puts the dot-coms to shame). There was a “dollar” system somewhat in place, largely before the middle of 2013, which supported all those but no longer does.
That’s the fascinating thing, in a morbid sort of context, about the eurodollar on its downside. It has always played favorites. In very general terms, the first outbreak of monetary deterioration (2007-09) which seemed to be the worst from our perspective was the least for the majority of the rest of the world. That one was focused on the US and to a lesser extent Europe. The return of crisis in 2011, the second event, was focused on Europe and to a lesser extent the US.
