Fundamental Forecast for Gold:Neutral
Gold prices snapped a three-week losing streak with the precious metal rallying 1.17% to trade at 1284 ahead of the New York close on Friday. The gains come on the back of weakness in the greenback with the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) coming off of four-month highs. The sell-off in global benchmark equity indices have caught the markets attention as the likelihood of U.S. tax reform continue to diminish.
Looking ahead to next week, traders will be eyeing the release of the October U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales on Wednesday. Although the Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates next month, continued signs of subdued price growth may keep the central bank on hold in the first half of 2018 amid the upcoming rotation within the FOMC.
With Governor Jerome Powell nominated to take the helm, the Fed appears to be on course to delivery three rate hikes per year. However, the upcoming appointments for the Vice Chair and New York Fed President may raise the risk for policy error as inflation continues to run below target. That said, gold may continue to shine amid uncertainty surrounding the U.S. monetary policy outlook and prices are likely to remain supported should a growing number of officials trim the longer-run forecast for the benchmark interest rate.
