OVERNIGHT MARKETS AND NEWS
Dec E-mini S&Ps (ESZ17 +0.26%) this morning are up +0.32% on strength in energy stocks with Jan WTI crude oil (CLF18 +0.98%) up +0.92% after all OPEC members and Russia agreed that crude production cuts should be extended until the end of 2018. European stocks are up +0.53% and found support on strength in the European economy after the Eurozone Oct unemployment rate fell -0.1 to an 8-3/4-year low of 8.8%. Asian stocks settled mostly lower: Japan +0.57%, Hong Kong -1.51%, China -0.62%, Taiwan -1.43%, Australia -0.69%, Singapore -0.16%, South Korea -1.64%, India -1.35%. Contagion from Wednesday’s rout in U.S. technology stocks spread to Asian markets, although Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index bucked the trend and climbed to a 1-1/2 week high after a rally in USD/JPY to a 1-week high fueled a rally in Japanese exporters. Chinese stocks fell despite an unexpected increase in manufacturing activity after the China Nov manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.2 to 51.8.
The dollar index (DXY00 +0.18%) is up +0.22% at a 1-week high. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.08% to a 1-week low on weaker-than-expected Eurozone Nov CPI, which is dovish for ECB monetary policy. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.33% at a 1-week high as strength in stocks reduces the safe-haven demand for the yen.
Dec 10-year T-note prices (ZNZ17 -0.11%) are down -3.5 ticks.
The Eurozone Oct unemployment rate unexpectedly fell -0.1 to an 8-3/4-year low of 8.8%, better than expectations of no change at 8.9%.
The Eurozone Nov CPI estimate rose +1.5% y/y, weaker than expectations of +1.6% y/y. Nov core CPI rose +0.9% y/y, unch from Oct and weaker than expectations of +1.0% y/y.
The German Nov unemployment change fell -18,000 to 2.476 million, stronger than expectations of -10,000. The Nov unemployment rate was unch at 5.6%, as expected and the lowest since the reunification of Germany in 1990.
German Oct retail sales unexpectedly fell -1.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.3% m/m and the biggest decline in 13 months.
The China Nov manufacturing PMI unexpectedly rose +0.2 to 51.8, stronger than expectations of -0.2 to 51.4.
U.S. STOCK PREVIEW
Key U.S. news today includes: (1) weekly initial unemployment claims (expected +1,000 to 240,000, previous -13,000 to 239,000) and continuing claims (expected -14,000 to 1.890 million, previous +36,000 to 1.904 million), (2) Oct personal spending (expected +0.3%, Sep +1.0%) and Oct personal income (expected +0.3%, Sep +0.4%), (3) Oct PCE deflator (expected +0.1% m/m and +1.5% y/y, Sep +0.4% m/m and +1.6% y/y) and Oct core PCE deflator (expected +0.2% m/m and +1.4% y/y, Sep +0.1% m/m and +1.3% y/y), (4) USDA weekly Export Sales, (5) Nov Chicago PMI (expected -3.2 to 63.0, Oct +1.0 to 66.2), (6) Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan (voter) speaks in a moderated Q&A at a Real Estate Council speaking series in Dallas.
