As this rally has often done, just as you expect a reversal to start, bulls come in (hard) to bid up the market. The S&P had the clearest switch as it moved from a ‘bull trap’ to a ‘bear trap’. If it can post a break of 2,597 it will have little to stop it; in such a scenario watch for a fresh MACD ‘buy’ which would confirm recent losses as a pullback ‘buy’ opportunity. Stops on a loss of 2,557.
More impressive was the recovery in the Russell 2000. I’m not sure it has done enough to consume what will be plentiful supply all the way to 1,515.Despite the 1.5% gain there wasn’t a significant improvement in technicals. There will not have been many longs to have taken a punt on the drift below the 50-day MA so much will depend on the strength of the short squeeze -today was a good start.
The Nasdaq didn’t disappoint. It was the safest long trade and despite the morning gap it was able to post additional gains. Upper channel resistance remains the upside target. Today’s volume registers as confirmed accumulation.
The Dow Jones only managed a weak bounce but the telegraphed ‘buy’ at support should have survived a stop test.
Today’s action was a useful start. Key to tomorrow will be closing in the upper part of today’s intraday range – irrespective of how much ground it gives up over the course of the day.
