I have often said that as traders, it is not our job to pass judgment on what should be, but, instead, to take advantage of what is. I will try to stick to that mantra when discussing the US tax “reform” package, but I must admit, it’s going to be tough for my feelings to not wiggle through.
Regardless of your ideological views, I think we can agree on a couple of points. First, this is not tax reform. There is no wholesale dramatic change to the tax code. Second, this is not a tax cut for lower and middle American workers, but instead a corporate and upper-class break of monster proportions. Now, you might think this is the best avenue to prosperity for all Americans, that’s certainly an argument I have heard from the right. Let’s not worry about the legitimacy of that theory – it is what it is, and arguing about it is like yelling at the clouds. Instead, let’s accept the fact that this is the direction Trump and Republicans are taking, and try to figure out what it means for the market.
This morning I called up my favourite European millennial hedge fund manager, Samuel Gruen, to shoot the breeze about how much of the tax cut was priced into the market. I am not sure where Sam’s ideas end and mine start, so let’s just say the next part was a collaborative effort.
I started with the proposition that much of the tax cut was built into the market, but expressed my worry that some smart excel crunching analysts were claiming the market was underestimating the tremendous impact of the corporate tax cut. Sam pointed out that if my theory was correct, then we should have seen those companies that would benefit most from the tax cut, rally the most over the past couple of months.
Yet when we have a look at the stocks that have risen the most, it’s not those stocks. The last couple of months have been a momentum chasing FANG craze. Not the companies that will benefit most from the tax cut.
