Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bullish
USD/JPY snaps the monthly opening range during the first full-week of November, and the pair face a growing risk of giving back the advance from the 2017-low (107.32) as the U.S. economic docket is expected to highlight a subdued outlook for inflation.
With the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) anticipated to slow to an annualized 2.0% from 2.2% in September, signs of easing price pressures may rattle the near-term recovery in the dollar-yen exchange rate as it limits the Fed’s scope to implement higher borrowing-costs in 2018.
Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) appears to be on course to deliver a December rate-hike, a growing number of central bank officials may trim the longer-run forecast for the benchmark interest rate as inflation continues to run below the 2% target. As a result, the FOMC under current Governor Jerome Powell may adopt a more gradual approach in normalizing monetary policy as ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.’
With that said, market participants are likely to pay increased attention to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) first conference on central bank communications from November 14 to 15 as Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to join a panel with President Mario Draghi, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Mark Carney and Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, but Chair Yellen may refrain from saying anything new with her term set to expire in February.
USD/JPY Daily Chart
Failure to preserve the monthly opening range brings the downside targets back on the radar for USD/JPY especially as both price and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) break the bullish formations carried over from September. The string of failed attempts to close above the 113.80 (23.6% expansion) to 114.30 (23.6% retracement) region raises the risk for a move back towards 112.30 (61.8% retracement) to 112.80 (38.2% expansion), with the next downside hurdle coming in around 111.10 (61.8% expansion) to 111.30 (50% retracement), which sits just beneath the October-low (111.65).
