Weekly Technical Analysis & Forecast

December E-mini Nasdaq-100 Index futures inched higher supported by support in some of the largely portfolios combined with solid earnings last week. While the Index in itself closed a tad bit lower, the divergence in the futures settlement away from the cash close allowed the futures price to stabilize and prop up some into the close on Friday as we crested above 6310 but settled around 6307.50. There are traders on both sides of the fence – some who believe in continued bullishness and others who are tame and believe the tech run up has been too fast too early and without reason. There are others now on a hedging between the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq 100, thinking that the former has sunk enough already and will find support.

Regardless, the price reversal top around the 6352 area is something I consider important not to ignore.

The main trend remains up according to the weekly swing chart. Continuation past 6352 will signify bullishness into the year end and into early January 2018. Trading below 6240 area on strong volume for this week will validate the bear camp and may lead to some support in the 6170 area initially and if that does not hold, there is a wide open gap leading well below the 6000 price handle, into retracement zones at 5990.

Based on last week’s close just below 6310, for this week the index is ruled by 6352 which works as initial resistance and a move above 6375 will imply continuance to the upside. For this week, inability to overcome 6352 initially will mean sellers want this to be lower with enough gusto to take this price below the 6200 handle. If 6190.00 region (and we are 100 points away from this as I write this) fails as support then look for acceleration to the downside with the next target angle coming in a tad below 6000. Continuation to the downside below here (ahead of any potential rally into the yearend) may not see the light of day if we take out 5880 ahead of the contract roll in December.