Weighing The Week Ahead: What Are The Chances For Tax Cuts?


The economic calendar has plenty of news, including most of the big reports except employment. Despite this, I expect many to be asking: what are the chances for tax cuts?

Last Week Recap

In the last edition of WTWA I suggested that Black Friday news would be the most important story, with plenty of speculation from people you have never before seen on TV. There would be a lack of analysis of the Fed minutes as people headed for an early vacation. That was all pretty accurate. CNBC had a Fed debriefing without a single economist on the panel.

The Story in One Chart

I always start my personal review of the week by looking at a great chart. Investing.com has a nice interactive version of futures trading with news. Check out the site to have some fun.

The regular story – new records and low volatility – continues.

The News

The economic news last week was solid on all fronts. Earnings expectations remain positive.

Most of the negative arguments rest on the idea that we are “due” for some bad news. Many people have gone broke betting on the “due theory.” I recommend sticking with our fundamental analysis, which is improving along with stock prices.

Perspective

Those who worry about “geopolitical risks” and argue that there should be some undefined impact on stock should look for some historical perspective. Does anyone remember this?

The Inspirational

For those who missed the post, please look at my Thanksgiving message. It is a challenge to find something that combines motivation, wisdom, humor, and investment advice. I found it. You should read it.

The Week Ahead

We would all like to know the direction of the market in advance. Good luck with that. Second best is planning what to look for and how to react. We have a big calendar. The big reports at week’s end, including the ISM survey, will set the table for the employment report.

Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week (and many other good features which I monitor each day). Here are the main U.S. releases.

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