Here are my forecasts for upcoming economic data.
Forecast
Prior Observation
Consensus
Week of December 4
December 4
Factory Orders – October
-0.4%
1.4
-0.4
Durable Goods Orders
-1.2
2.0
Nondurable Goods Orders
0.4
0.8
December 5
International Trade – October
-$47.5B
-43.5
-47.1
PMI Services Index
54.7
54.7
54.7
ISM Services – November
59.6
60.1
59.0
December 6
ADP Employment Report – November
205K
235.0
192
Productivity – Q3 (r)
3.3%
3.0(p)
3.3
Unit Labor Costs
0.2
0.5
0.3
December 7
Initial Unemployment Claims
240K%
238
240
Consumer Credit – October
$18.0B
20.8
17.6
December 8
Nonfarm Payrolls – November
250K
261K
185
Private
245
252
183
Manufacturing
25
24
20
Unemployment
4.0%
4.1
4.1
Average Workweek
34.4Hr
34.4
34.4
Average Hourly Earnings
0.2%
0.0
0.3
Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Dec (p)
99.0
98.5
98.8
Wholesale Inventories – October (r)
-0.4
-0.4(p)
-0.1
Week of December 11
December 12
Producer Price Index – November
0.3%
0.4
PPI less food, energy and trade services
0.2
0.2
Treasury Budget – November
-$135.0B
-63.2
December 13
Consumer Price Index – November
0.4%
0.1
Core CPI
0.2
0.2
FMOC
1.375
1.125
December 14
Retail Sales – October
0.5%
0.2
Retail Sales, ex Autos
0.7
0.1
Retail Sales, ex Autos and Gas
0.5
0.3
Export Prices – November
0.3%
0.0
Import Prices
0.8
0.2
Business Inventories – October
-0.1%
0.0
December 15
NY Fed Manufacturing Index
20.0
19.2
Industrial Production – November
0.3%
0.9
Capacity Utilization
77.2
77.0
