December 2017 Headline Existing Home Growth Declines But Up For Whole Of 2017 -

December 2017 Headline Existing Home Growth Declines But Up For Whole Of 2017

Jan 24, 2018Jeremy ParkinsonFinance0

The headline existing home sales growth declined with the authors saying “new listings struggled to keep up with what was sold very quickly, and buying became less affordable in a large swath of the country“. Our analysis of the unadjusted data is a bleaker picture than the headline data.

Analyst Opinion of Existing Home Sales

The rolling averages have been slowing in 2017 – but they again marginally accelerated this month. The rolling averages are in expansion. This was the best year since 2006 – but that is not saying much as the trend lines going into 2018 are significantly slowing. Housing inventory is now at historical lows – and if you do not have enough houses for sale – then that means home sales cannot improve.

Econintersect Analysis

Unadjusted sales rate of growth decelerated 4.0 % month-over-month, down 2.3 % year-over-year – sales growth rate trend accelerated using the 3 month moving average.

Unadjusted price rate of growth accelerated 0.2 % month-over-month, up 4.8 % year-over-year – price growth rate trend marginally accelerated using the 3 month moving average.

The homes for sale inventory significantly declined this month, remains historically low for Decembers, and is down 10.3 % from inventory levels one year ago).

NAR reported:

Sales down 3.6 % month-over-month, up 1.1 % year-over-year.

Prices up 5.8 % year-over-year

The market expected annualized sales volumes of 5.500 M to 5.900 M (consensus 5.750 million) vs the 5.57 million reported.