November 2017 Manufacturing New Orders Improves -

November 2017 Manufacturing New Orders Improves

Jan 05, 2018Jeremy ParkinsonFinance0

US Census says manufacturing new orders improved, Our analysis agrees – and the rolling averages improved.

Analyst Opinion of Census Manufacturing Sales

According to the seasonally adjusted data, it was aircraft which accounted for much of the increase – but the improvement was widespread. The data in this series is noisy so I would rely on the unadjusted 3 month rolling averages which improved.

Remember the headline numbers are not inflation adjusted..

Backlog of orders continues in expansion year-over-year. And this data is not inflation adjusted which mean backlog is likely contracting.

US Census Headline:

The seasonally adjusted manufacturing new orders is up 1.3 % month-over-month.

Market expected (from Bloomberg / Econoday) month-over-month growth of 0.6 % to 1.5 % (consensus +1.1 %).

Manufacturing unfilled orders increased 0.1 % month-over-month, and up 0.7 % year-over-year.

Econintersect Analysis:.

Unadjusted manufacturing new orders growth accelerated 3.2 % month-over-month, and up 8.6 % year-over-year.

Unadjusted manufacturing new orders (but inflation adjusted) up 4.2 % year-over-year.

Three month rolling new order rolling averages was up 0.8 % month-over-month, and is up 6.5 % year-over-year.

Unadjusted manufacturing unfilled orders growth accelerated 0.2 % month-over-month, and up 0.8 % year-over-year

As a comparison to the inflation adjusted new orders data, the manufacturing subindex of the Federal Reserves Industrial Production growth up 1.3 % month-over-month, and up 2.7 % year-over-year.

Seasonally Adjusted Manufacturing Value of New Orders – All (red line, left axis), All except Defense (green line, left axis), All with Unfilled Orders (orange line, left axis), and all except transport (blue line, right axis)