Poor housing reports and poor economic reports on durable goods and international trade took a toll on GDP estimates.
The latest GDPNow forecast is 2.6%, down from and 3.2% on February 16, 4.0% on February 2, and 5.4% on February 1.
The previous report was on February 16, but GDPNow posts intermediate points on release dates.
Evolution of the Quarter
The previous report was on February 16. Intermediate effects from February 21 and 26 were posted today.
Real Final Sales
Real final sales are the true measure of GDP. Fluctuations in inventory balance out over time.
Inventory contributes a fill percentage point to the GDPNow first-quarter estimate of 2.6%
If we get another bad retail sales report, we can see under 2% GDP with real final sales close at or below 1%.
