The bullish percents continue to point lower confirming the short-term downtrend.
The number of 52-week lows is still a bit elevated which also confirms the short-term downtrend.
Bonds have found support and have started to rally.
The 10Y yield has dipped (prices higher, yields lower).
But the dip isn’t enough yet to change the longer-term outlook.
German yields provided advance warning that US yields were likely to dip.
Interesting comments about corrections. This is via “VIX Squared” on Twitter.
Outlook Summary:
I am expecting a choppy, headline-driven, sideways market between now and the November elections. I still plan to buy the dips for short-term gain, but over time I plan to continue to reduce my overall exposure to stocks.
The expected US economic growth rate is back down to the 2% level.
Higher rates are now a headwind for US stocks. The recent tax cut, the 300 billion spending increase, and the already out-of-control federal deficit are a set up for a very dangerous spike in interest rates.
Once again, the problems in Europe related to debt and the banking system are serious issues.
Something else to consider is the Mueller investigation. I worry that the headlines generated by the investigation may rattle the markets more than people are currently anticipating.
Based on market seasonality, Mike Burk is projecting a medium-term stock market peak in May which sounds about right to me.
Outlook from Bob Doll, Nuveen (Bob Doll)
