Here are the currencies and commodities that do well or poorly in March, historically. Statistics include how often the prices rise or fall, and by how much, on average. Tickers mentioned: USDMXN, USDCAD, Oil (CL, USO), Natural Gas (NG, UNG), Corn (ZC, CORN), Gold (GC, GLD), Coffee (KC, JO), and Sugar (SB, SGG).
Statistics are based on monthly opening and closings prices, and do not reflect overall volatility that occurs during the month. Commodity statistics are based on a continuous futures contract, which may differ from specific contract statistics.
Statistics are run on USD Index, AUD/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/MXN, NZD/USD for currencies and on Light Crude, Natural Gas, Corn, Gold, Silver, Copper, Coffee, Sugar, and Wheat for commodities. Applicable ETFs are also discussed.
Only the commodities and currencies on this list that tend to rise/fall in October more than 65% of the time (over the last 20 years) are discussed below. Other assets that are noteworthy but that don’t meet that 65% threshold may also be discussed.
Seasonality statistics are best utilized in conjunction with strategies that provide exact entry, exit and risk management protocols.
Forex Seasonality For March
The USD/MXN has fallen in 16 of the last 20 years (80%), dropping by an average of -1.7% in March.
The USD/CAD has fallen in 14 of the last 20 years (70%), dropping an average of 0.3% in March.
The CurrencyShares Canadian Dollar Trust (FXC) has rallied in February in 7 of the last 11 years (64%), with an average gain of 0.5%.
Commodity Seasonality For March
Light Crude (CL) only rallied in March 55% of the time over the last 20 years, which isn’t significant. But when it does move higher in March, it has produced some big gains. The average gain in March over the last 20 years is 3.9%.
United States Oil Fund (USO) has moved up in 7 of the last 11 years (64%), averaging 1.8%.
