Some are bullish on oil because Trump threatens to kill the deal with Iran. It’s faulty thinking. Way faulty.
Oil analysts claim the Tillerson ouster is bullish for oil.
Rex #Tillerson ouster bullish for #oil (bearish for #IranDeal) analysts like @JoeMcMonigle say https://t.co/KNpa6mVWGh via @dan_graeber @crudeoilprices pic.twitter.com/9ULJqwDzGj
— Hedgeye (@Hedgeye) March 14, 2018
Joseph McMonigle writing for HedgEye says Tillerson’s Departure Signals End of Iran Nuclear Deal & Higher Oil Prices.
I strongly disagree for political reasons and economic reasons. Throw in sentiment for good measure.
Political: Trump is a Lone Wolf
Unless the ECB also puts sanctions on Iran, trump will be an ineffective lone wolf.
There is no reason to believe the ECB will go along with Trump. The ECB despises Trump.
On July 30, 2017, the Financial Tribune announced a Six-Fold Rise in EU Oil Imports From Iran.
That going to change because of Trump? Exports to China going to change because of Trump?
No, to both.
On January 16, 2018, Reuters reported India’s imports of Iran oil in Dec scheduled to rise to most since March.
Exports to India going to change because of Trump?
Sentiment