(from my colleague Dr. Win Thin)
EM FX ended Friday on a mixed note, capping off a largely softer week. Best performers last week were MYR and TWD while the worst were ZAR and ARS. US stocks clawed back early losses and ended the week on a firmer note but we think further market turbulence is likely.
Malaysia reports January trade Monday. Bank Negara meets Wednesday and is expected to keep rates steady at 3.25%. CPI rose 2.7% y/y in January. While the bank does not have an explicit inflation target, lower price pressures should allow it to hike very cautiously after it started the tightening cycle in January.
Turkey reports February CPI Monday, which is expected to rise 10% y/y vs. 10.35% in January. While still above the 3-7% target range, inflation has eased from the peak of 13% y/y in November. The central bank then meets Wednesday and is expected to keep all rates steady.
Hungary reports January retail sale Monday, which are expected to rise 6.2% y/y vs. 6.1% in January. January IP will be reported Wednesday and is expected to rise 5.6% y/y WDA. It reports February CPI Thursday, which is expected to rise 2.0% y/y vs. 2.1% in January. If so, inflation would be at the bottom of the 2-4% target range. January trade will be reported Friday.
Taiwan reports January IP Monday and is expected to rise 4% y/y vs. 1.2% in December. It reports February CPI and trade Wednesday. CPI is expected to rise 1.95% y/y vs. 0.88% in January, while exports are expected to rise 9.1% y/y and imports by 7% y/y. While the central bank does not have an explicit inflation target, lower price pressures should allow it to remain on hold in 2018.
Colombia reports February CPI Monday, which is expected to rise 3.41% y/y vs. 3.68% in January. If so, inflation would be the lowest since July and remains in the bottom of the 2-4% target range. Next policy meeting is March 20 and no change is expected as the bank signaled a pause.
