In my role as a long-term investor (trading is a different story) I don’t care about Chinese purchases of US Treasuries. You shouldn’t either.
The issue is the focal point of the trade war story.
There are multiple reasons, but the most important is rarely mentioned. Stories ask, “Who Will Buy Our Bonds?” as if China is the only market. The (overly) simple heuristic is a market with a handful of participants. Country A borrows from B. B calls the debt. Party A must now, hat in hand, go to C or D or E to ask for a loan.
This analytical error comes when we focus on the result of building and liquidating positions instead of daily market dynamics. What is the correct answer to the “who will buy” question?
The buyers will be the millions of individuals (usually through funds) and thousands of institutions that are bidding for US Treasuries every day. Some currently lose out in purchases to Chinese buyers, perhaps because of China’s compelling need to invest US dollars. An economist might instead ask:
Suppose a buyer who is relatively insensitive to price was subtracted from the demand curve. What would be the new market clearing price?
This question allows the analyst to include the deep and liquid Treasury market and therefore see the minor effect of trading by even the largest participants.
This basic market analysis is ignored by everyone. I guess it is too sophisticated for the pundits, who personify everything, and too trivial for real economists.
Here are some other reasons:
