“Some things never change. Some things do.” You might be wondering why we are quoting one of the lines from the Matrix movie. The reason is because that’s exactly what we can say about the gold market and the price patterns in it. The thing that never changes is the fact that gold will always somehow react to the fundamental news, but the way it reacts will vary over time. Moreover, this quote could describe the situation with the current analogies and price patterns in gold, silver and mining stocks. Because of the trade-war-based rally, they changed, but something didn’t. The outlook that they imply.

Let’s take a closer look at the patterns, starting with gold (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Gold’s Upcoming Reversal

The final implication based on the above chart didn’t change. Gold is still likely to decline from the current price levels and it’s likely to form a bottom close to the April 9th, as that’s where we have a triple reversal date confirmed by apex reversal triangles.

The triple top analogy seems to remain intact and the implications are bearish. Just like the third major top in early September 2017 ended the consolidation and started the decline, it seems that we saw an important high this week.

Each high is lower than the preceding one, which is in tune with what we saw in mid-2017 and during the 2012-2013 time frame. Indeed, the similarity to the previous patterns remains in place and the implications are bearish.

All in all, not much changed in the case of the above gold charts. The two remaining charts that feature silver and mining stocks will be more interesting, though.

Silver Changes and Lack Thereof

The particularly noteworthy thing on the white metal’s chart is the way in which we can view the self-similar pattern between now and back in November 2017. After the early-March volatile daily upswing, we thought that it was a direct analogy to the mid-November upswing that had been the final rally before the decline. And this might have been the case but based on the fundamental news (Powell-related uncertainty and trade conflict) gold rallied and thus silver more or less had to rally as well. Consequently, the pattern changed, but not completely. The pattern still seems to be intact, but in a slightly different way.