Roughly 7 months ago, I wrote the blog post titled “Bitcoin mania will end in tears.” Given my experience during the internet stock bubble of 1999, it felt like bitcoin and crypto were in a similar period of boom soon to be followed by bust. Those who said “this time is different” were proven wrong, again.
Bitcoin crash
Those who bought during the December run up are feeling the pain today. From its high, Bitcoin and Ethereum have lost over two-thirds of their value and Litecoin lost over three-quarters of its value.
According to recent research, at least half of the price jump in bitcoin last year was due to price manipulation. That is a scary thought but not surprising since some speculated that 40% of bitcoins were controlled by just 1,000 people.
Failed ICOs mounting
Today I read an article “Crypto coin graveyard fills up fast as ICOs meet their demise.” According to the website Coinopsy, more than 1000 coins have gone bust. “There has obviously been a lot of fraud and hype in the ICO market,” Aaron Brown, a business author and investor who writes for Bloomberg Prophets, said in an email. “I accept figures I have seen that 80 percent of ICOs were frauds, and 10 percent lacked substance and failed shortly after raising money. Most of the remaining 10 percent will probably fail as well.”
Failed projects have cost investors billions. Perhaps the most prominent is BitConnect which saw its market cap shrink from $3 billion in December to about $4 million today.
In the end, I still am very wary of anything crypto. Will blockchain have a big future? Probably but it is way too early to make sense of it all.
