Latest Price – $352.50
Weekly Chart
Pattern – a downtrend is in progress and I believe a “three strikes and you’re out” low formation is setting up with price currently tracing out its way to the third and final low.
Bollinger Bands – price is at the lower band and the question is does price trade down alongside this band or does support come in and send price back up? I lean to the latter.
Horizontal line – denotes the June 2016 high of $439.25 and, while I don’t expect price to take this level out before the third and final low, there is one pattern that would support this. That is a 5 point broadening low whereby this high becomes the point 2 high and breaking above before turning back down would set up a point 4 high. I have my doubts about this setup but it is certainly worth keeping in mind.
Moving averages – in a bearish position but the averages have narrowed and a move up or down, in the short term, would not surprise here.
RSI – oversold.
Quarterly Chart
Pattern – I believe a massive 5 point broadening top is in play with price on its way to a point 4 low.
Fibonacci – the 76.4% angle provided resistance for the previous high and should price go back up now to test that high then this angle should once again prove strong resistance. Ultimately, I favor the point 4 low to be around support from the 88.6% angle. The most recent low was at support from the 76.4% retracement level and I believe price can push a touch lower although the 88.6% retracement level of $222 looks too far away.
Horizontal line – denotes the point 2 low set in 2008 at $290 and price will need to breach this level to set up a point 4 low.
Moving averages – in a bullish position and I am looking for price to test the support from the 200 quarterly average (black).
RSI – just in weak territory although it does seem to be trending up so bears need to be cautious.
