MON Sector Strength – TUE Rates – WED Medium-Term – THU Commodities Currencies – FRI Sentiment – SAT Longer-Term
The Short-Term Trend
The short-term downtrend continues with the PMO Index down again today. I’ll leave it at that until tomorrow morning.
Sentiment
The Investor’s Intelligence Newsletter Sentiment Survey is showing about 52% bulls (down from 55% bulls) as reported by VIX-Squared on Twitter.
55% is the range in which the market potentially starts to struggle over the medium-term, and I generally interpret a tick down below this range as a caution signal. So I think the survey is indicating that the market is ready for at least brief consolation or correction.
This means that, from a contrarian’s point-of-view (and in my opinion), at the current level of bullishness in this survey, it is time to raise some cash.
I highly recommend paying attention to the Investor’s Intelligence weekly survey. It has served me well for a long time. It isn’t perfect and doesn’t always work such as during extremely strong or weak market trends. However, most of the time, it provides very helpful market timing signals. In general, when the number of bulls is below 45%, there is probably too much pessimism towards stocks which favors a period of higher stock prices. When the percent of bulls rises above 55%, it is in an indication that bullishness is starting to become excessive which works against stock prices.
Outlook Summary:
The long-term outlook is cautious. Higher rates and huge Federal deficits.
The medium-term trend is up as of May-10.
The short-term trend is down as of Jun-19.
The medium-term trend for bond prices is up as of Jun-19.
Investing Themes:
Technology
Medical Products
Cyber Security
Payment Processors
Small and Micro Caps
Gaming
Strategy:
