Thoughts
1 am: A repeat of the 1930s global tariff wars is unlikely.
The Smoot-Hawley Act of 1930 was arguably the biggest contributor to the Great Depression. It was a tariff act that impacted 28k goods – in other words, an across-the-board tariff.
Trump’s tariffs are tiny in comparison, and even if he wanted to, he couldn’t bring back a trade war on the scale of Smoot-Hawley. Here’s the point that many people don’t realize.
In other words, Trump can implement small-scale tariffs without heavy backlash from Congress. But if he pushes too hard and does hurt the U.S. economy in the process, Congress will stop him.
Congress today is generally pro-trade, whereas Congress in 1930 was heavily anti-trade.
1 am: Truck Tonnage is still trending higher. A medium-long term bullish sign for the stock market.
The latest reading for Truck Tonnage decreased a little from the previous reading. However, the key point is that Truck Tonnage continues to trend higher. This is a medium-long term bullish sign for the stock market.
Truck Tonnage is a medium-long term leading indicator for the stock market and economy. Historically, Truck Tonnage trends downwards before an equities bear market and economic recession begins. Truck Tonnage is trending upwards right now.
