Precious metal Gold has precious little support left to save its year. Having settled the week Friday at 1254, price traded down through most of The Box (1280-1240), reaching as low as 1247.
Our present sense is should Gold post a weekly close sub-1240, it will be well en route to putting in a down year, barring (to quote from the “The Eiger Sanction” Clint Eastwood): “…something massive, something massive…“ happening to spur price back up.
It may not “feel” that bad to this point, but for 2018 Gold just completed its second poorest initial semester performance (-3.9% as shown below in our year-to-date BEGOS Markets standings) of the last six years, the only worse one (of course) being 2013’s plunge of -26.3% through that year’s first six months. Who knew back in toasting the New Year that 2018 would be “Nuthin’ But Oil!”
Indeed, the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil has practically tripled in settling this past week at 74.25 from February 11, 2016’s low of 26.05. Where was Gold back on that wintry day? 1247 as just noted, this past week’s low as well. And as pointed out in our prior missive, Gold also was at 1247 eight years ago. Are we having fun yet (2011’s interim run to 1923 notwithstanding)?
In fact, you wanna talk about crazy? Within the past two weeks from 15 June through 26 June (eight trading days):
■ The Bond’s (30-yr.) price went up from 143^12 to 144^17, (the yield falling)
■ The Euro vs. the Dollar went up from 1.1545 to 1.1795
■ The Swiss Franc vs. the Dollar went up from 1.0014 to 1.0215
■ The Dollar Index correspondingly went down from 94.820 to 93.830
■ Gold went down (you can’t make this stuff up!) from 1306.7 to 1256.4 … Are you kidding me?
This is inexplicably unexplainable.
In fact, so miserable has become the yellow metal’s negativity in spite of the normally Gold-Positive moves from the above markets, (not to mention the “3Ds” of Debasement, Debt and Derivatives), that now we’re seeing Gold falling even as the stock market falls. No safe haven flight from there to Gold. To wit, here is its percentage track vs. that of the S&P 500 for the past 21 trading days (one month):
