It’s been a while since I advised anyone to load up on long Treasuries. The bearish bond narrative has been too strong for that, thanks largely to fiscal policy but also to near-4% unemployment rates, quantitative tightening and—maybe most threatening of all—tit-for-tat tariffs.

In fact, I challenge anyone to think of a time during the past two decades when bond bears (read: most mainstream commentators) have possessed a more compelling Powerpoint pack.

But maybe the powerful bear story has become overplayed, maybe it was fully or almost fully priced in by mid-May when the 10-year Treasury yield reached a six-year high of 3.11%. If so, it might be a good time to revisit the argument that the secular bull is still intact, a time for contrarians to speak up.

If that’s what you’re expecting, though, this article might disappoint you. Yes, I’ll make a bullish argument, but it won’t be contrarian. Instead, we’ll consider how you might become a bond bull by embracing the financial mainstream. We’ll explore the inner bull that’s infecting the mainstream bear with a viral case of bond optimism.

To deliver on that promise, I’ll rely on three branches of consensus thinking: the first looks at the yield curve, the second at consensus business cycle forecasts, and the third ties in consensus policy forecasts.

Inverting the Yield Curve Inversion Story

You may have already heard this shock news bulletin: Some analysts connect a flattening yield curve to recession risks. (Gasp!)

In my own reading this year, I’ve seen a few (hundred) articles on this topic. As of late April, I felt the commotion was too loud for the amount of curve flattening to date, and I said as much here. I showed that the yield curve at that time was mid-cycle or even early cycle by historical standards, not late cycle.

Of course, I timed the article perfectly (if the goal is to jinx the economy)—the flattening pace accelerated a couple of weeks later. As of this writing, the curve still isn’t clearly late cycle, but we’re much closer than we were in April. So instead of tempering the mainstream view, let’s do something different—let’s embrace the view but invert it.