Commercial gold hedgers reduced their short holdings by nearly 25% last week – a sharp reduction. Their combined positions (futures and options) dropped an astonishing 37%. Speculative shorts remain at or near record highs. For example, managed money is short 153,108 gold contracts. During the July 2017 low, their shorts reached 100,397 contracts (see below).
The commitment of traders is now even more bullish. Unfortunately, these reports don’t time the exact bottom…they merely tell us when the conditions are ripe for a reversal. The sharp reduction in commercial shorts last week and throughout July suggest we are very close to a bottom.
Monday will mark the 53rd day of gold’s common or daily cycle. The average in 2018 has been about 55 trading days. This too suggests we are very close to a low. If prices didn’t bottom Friday, then they should sometime next week.
Friday’s rally faded into the close, and we didn’t get the strong follow through often associated with a low. The price action Monday and Tuesday will tell us where we stand.
I’ll watch the price action closely and post multiple updates.
US DOLLAR
Prices could top here or continue to the upper boundary (6). A breakdown below the lower border is needed to confirm a top.
GOLD WEEKLY
Gold formed another outside reversal; prices exceed both the high and the low of the previous week. Commercials reduced their shorts from -65,668 to -47,918 (a 25% reduction). Their combined futures and options dropped from -49,820 to -31,738 (a sharp 37% reduction). Speculative shorting remains at or near record levels. The ingredients are there for a bottom and explosive rally…all we need is a spark.
