Downtrend To Continue?


The U.S. stock market indexes lost 0.7-0.8% on Friday, retracing some of their early August advance, as investors reacted to global stock markets’ rout. The S&P 500 index broke below its relatively narrow three-day-long trading range following bouncing off the resistance level of around 2,860-2,865. It currently trades 1.4% below the January’s 26th record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.8% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost 0.7% on Friday.

The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index is now at around 2,820-2,825, marked by some previous local highs. The next support level is at 2,800. On the other hand, the nearest important level of resistance is at 2,845-2,850, marked by Friday’s daily gap down of 2,842.20-2,851.98. The resistance level is also at 2,870-2,875, marked by the mentioned January’s all-time high.

The broad stock market got close to its January’s record high recently, as investors’ sentiment improved following quarterly corporate earnings, economic data releases. The S&P 500 index traded within a relatively narrow trading range on Tuesday-Thursday’s last week. Then it broke lower on Friday. Was it some medium-term downward reversal or just downward correction before another leg up? There are still two possible medium-term scenarios – bearish that will lead us towards the February low again, and the bullish one – breakout higher towards 3,000 mark. The latter one got very real recently. However, the S&P 500 index bounced of the resistance level marked by the mentioned January’s record high last week:

Slightly Negative Expectations

Expectations before the opening of today’s trading session are slightly negative, because the index futures contracts trade 0.3% below their Friday’s closing prices. The main European stock market indexes have lost 0.3-0.7% so far. There will be no new important economic data announcements today. The broad stock market will probably fluctuate following Friday’s decline. The S&P 500 index may bounce off the support level of around 2,820-2,825, marked by the previous local highs. However, there have been no confirmed short-term positive signals so far.

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